Four fights dominate the market story on this card. Rodriguez-Amil is the sharpest signal: a true steam move (100% book agreement, sharp-led +6.1 pts) with a fascinating reversal — the line dipped early then surged +6.5 pts back, implying early faders got run over by coordinated sharp money on Rodriguez. Magomedov-Bagdasaryan is the cleanest unidirectional sharp play: 100% book agreement, sharp books averaging +5.6 pts on Magomedov with no reversal, grinding from -250 open to -360 current. Rosa-Santos is the card's most dramatic line move in absolute terms: a near-pick'em fight now, with sharp books leading a -5.5 pt move off Rosa (sharp-led, 83% agreement) that has nearly erased her entire favorite status. The main event Kape-Horiguchi tells a different story — sharp books moved significantly MORE than public books (-7.0 vs -3.0 pts) away from Kape, but only 70% agreement and no steam designation, suggesting informed but not unanimous money on Horiguchi.
The movers
9 fights · 4 steam
SignificantSteam · Sharp-ledReversal
451 book moves
Christian RodriguezvsHyder Amil
Money on Christian Rodriguez · +5.9 pts · 100% agree
Christian Rodriguez-160 58.5%→-200 64.4%
Hyder Amil+130 41.5%→+170 35.6%
SignificantSteamReversal
398 book moves
Otar TanzilovvsShane Collins
Money on Shane Collins · +5.2 pts · 91% agree
Otar Tanzilov+140 40.0%→+176 34.8%
Shane Collins-170 60.0%→-205 65.2%
SignificantSteam · Sharp-led
334 book moves
Murtazali MagomedovvsMelsik Bagdasaryan
Money on Murtazali Magomedov · +4.4 pts · 100% agree
Murtazali Magomedov-294 71.0%→-360 75.4%
Melsik Bagdasaryan+230 29.0%→+291 24.6%
Sharp read · price trajectory · full book breakdown · prop moves
SignificantSteam · Sharp-led
600 book moves
Karol RosavsLuana Santos
Money on Luana Santos · +4.3 pts · 83% agree
Karol Rosa-140 55.1%→-114 50.9%
Luana Santos+112 44.9%→-105 49.1%
Sharp read · price trajectory · full book breakdown · prop moves
Moderate
459 book moves
Andre FilivsVinicius de Oliveira
Money on Vinicius de Oliveira · +3.9 pts · 96% agree
Andre Fili+195 32.7%→+235 28.8%
Vinicius de Oliveira-240 67.3%→-280 71.2%
Sharp read · price trajectory · full book breakdown · prop moves
1137443 | Farid Basharat vs. Ethyn Ewing — quiet (0.8 pts net, -0.8 on Basharat). Only 10 books, 57% agreement, no steam. Early swing to Basharat (+6.4 pts by Jun 11) fully retraced. Line locked at +109/-130 since Jun 14. Best: Basharat +114 Bookmaker, Ewing -125 Bovada.
1120135 | Beatriz Mesquita vs. Melissa Mullins — quiet (0.8 pts net, +0.8 on Mesquita). Line barely moved off -600/+425 open; current -600/+450. Only 17% book agreement, 4/23 books same direction. No steam. Best: Mesquita -549 Betway, Mullins +525 Bovada.
1132402 | Michael Aswell vs. Gaston Bolanos — quiet (0.5 pts net, +0.5 on Aswell). Opened -400/+309, current -395/+320. Only 17% book agreement, 4/23 books same direction. No steam. Best: Aswell -360 SXBet, Bolanos +344 SXBet.
1118967 | André Lima vs. Kevin Borjas — quietest line on the card (0.1 pts net). Opened -700/+475, current -650/+475. Only 4% book agreement, 1/23 books same direction. Sharp books (BetOnline, Circa, Pinnacle) actually moved slightly against Lima. No meaningful signal. Best: Lima -590 Circa, Borjas +502 Bet105.
Consensus moneyline and de-vigged win percentages are computed as cross-book medians; prediction markets (Polymarket) are excluded from consensus calculations and reported separately. Direction of money flow is inferred from price movement only — when a fighter's de-vig percentage rises, their price shortened and money is inferred to have come in on that side. No ticket count or handle data is available. Steam designation requires synchronized multi-book movement; the threshold and classification are pre-computed in the provided data. Sharp vs. public book designations are as tagged in the source data. Prop market implied percentages are raw (not de-vigged) and should be treated as directional signals only, not true probability estimates. All prices quoted are as of the last_seen timestamp in the data packet.
Sharp read · price trajectory · full book breakdown · prop moves