Four stories dominate this card. (1) Reyes-Ofli is the biggest mover: a 9.1-point major steam with 100% book agreement and sharp-led action drove Reyes from -155/+128 open to -228/+192 current — the cleanest, most coordinated move on the slate. (2) Magomedov-Oleksiejczuk is the most interesting structural story: the line opened with Magomedov as a -138 favorite, briefly peaked at -140 on June 21, then reversed sharply through sharp-led steam to flip Oleksiejczuk to a -118 favorite — a 6.9-point net swing with 100% book agreement. (3) Sadykhov-Camilo shows the sharpest books (Circa, Cloudbet, Bet105, BetOnline, Bookmaker) all moving Camilo, cutting Sadykhov from -247 to -188 with a late acceleration June 25-26. (4) The main event Fiziev-Torres is the card's most nuanced read: public books moved more than sharp books (sharp_led=false), the line drifted from Fiziev -120 to essentially a pick'em at -109/-110, but the move is soft — recreational money on Torres, not sharp conviction.
Every actionable angle the desk flagged — reverse line moves, cross-book outliers, and the best remaining numbers.
Start 7-day free trialConsensus moneyline and de-vig win percentages are computed as cross-book medians excluding prediction markets (Polymarket). Direction of money flow is inferred from price movement only — when a fighter's de-vig percentage rises, their price shortened and money came in on that side. We do not have ticket counts or handle percentages. Steam designation requires synchronized movement across multiple books in a tight window; the is_steam flag and book_agreement_pct are pre-computed. Sharp vs. public split is based on book tier tagging (sharp/public) in the source data. Prop market implied percentages are raw (not de-vigged) and should be interpreted as directional signals only, not precise probabilities. The Donchenko-Gustafsson Berg bout has only one sportsbook posting a line and should be treated as having insufficient market depth for a reliable read.
Sharp read · price trajectory · full book breakdown · prop moves
UnlockSharp read · price trajectory · full book breakdown · prop moves
UnlockSharp read · price trajectory · full book breakdown · prop moves
UnlockSharp read · price trajectory · full book breakdown · prop moves
UnlockSharp read · price trajectory · full book breakdown · prop moves
UnlockSharp read · price trajectory · full book breakdown · prop moves
UnlockSharp read · price trajectory · full book breakdown · prop moves
UnlockSharp read · price trajectory · full book breakdown · prop moves
UnlockSharp read · price trajectory · full book breakdown · prop moves
UnlockSharp read · price trajectory · full book breakdown · prop moves
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