Four market stories dominate this card. (1) Whittaker-Krylov is the loudest signal on the sheet: a 12.1-point major move on Krylov, 100% book agreement, sharp-led steam that accelerated July 4-6, collapsing Whittaker from -210 to -120 — the market has essentially called this a coin flip. (2) Green-McKinney flipped from McKinney -156 to a near pick'em (-111/-105), with the biggest chunk landing in the final 40 hours; sharp books led and the move is 8.7 points, but public books moved slightly more than sharp books, injecting some caution. (3) Pinas-Almeida is the card's cleanest sharp-led steam: 23/23 books moved the same direction, sharp books averaged +8.1 pts vs public +6.1, grinding Pinas from -190 to -255 over two weeks. (4) Gandra-Reese features the card's most interesting reversal: opened -161 Gandra, spiked to -192 by June 30, then sharp books reversed it all the way to -135 by July 6 — a textbook sharp fade of early public money.
The movers
10 fights · 6 steam
SignificantSteam · Sharp-led
745 book moves
Damian PinasvsCesar Almeida
Money on Damian Pinas · +6.5 pts · 100% agree
Damian Pinas-190 62.6%→-255 69.0%
Cesar Almeida+155 37.4%→+210 31.0%
Sharp read · price trajectory · full book breakdown · prop moves
SignificantSteam · Sharp-led
609 book moves
Kai Kamaka IIIvsLuke Riley
Money on Kai Kamaka III · +6.2 pts · 100% agree
Kai Kamaka III+248 27.4%→+185 33.6%
Luke Riley-315 72.6%→-225 66.4%
Sharp read · price trajectory · full book breakdown · prop moves
SignificantSteam
1063 book moves
Benoit Saint-DenisvsPaddy Pimblett
Money on Paddy Pimblett · +5.5 pts · 91% agree
Benoit Saint-Denis-179 61.2%→-135 55.6%
Paddy Pimblett+145 38.8%→+117 44.4%
Sharp read · price trajectory · full book breakdown · prop moves
SignificantSteam · Sharp-ledReversal
921 book moves
Ryan GandravsZach Reese
Money on Zach Reese · +4.1 pts · 74% agree
Ryan Gandra-161 59.4%→-135 55.3%
Zach Reese+134 40.6%→+114 44.7%
ModerateReversal
1379 book moves
Conor McGregorvsMax Holloway
Money on Conor McGregor · +3.0 pts · 82% agree
Conor McGregor+250 27.1%→+218 30.2%
Max Holloway-326 72.9%→-256 69.8%
Sharp read · price trajectory · full book breakdown · prop moves
Tracy Cortez vs. Cong Wang (1136605): Quiet, 1.3-pt net move toward Cortez (+105 to +100), but with a notable intra-period reversal — Cortez peaked at 50.0% (pick'em) on July 4 before retracing. Only 43% book agreement and sharp books moved more than public (sharp_led=true), but the net move is too small to act on. Best Cortez: ProphetX +107; best Wang: FanDuel -112.
Cory Sandhagen vs. Mario Bautista (1126955): Quiet, 1.3-pt net move toward Bautista (-155 to -145 Sandhagen), 35% book agreement — the most fragmented line on the card. Sharp_led=true but the move is negligible. Polymarket at 57.5% Sandhagen (-138/+133) is slightly softer than consensus (-145/+122). Best Sandhagen: SXBet -127; best Bautista: BetMGM +130. Efficient, low-signal line.
Cody Garbrandt vs. Adrian Yanez (1133441): Quiet, 1.2-pt net move toward Yanez (+310 to +333 Garbrandt), only 30% book agreement — the lowest on the card. Sharp books barely moved (-0.5 pts). The line has been essentially stable since open. Note: SXBet opened Garbrandt at -165 (likely a data error) and corrected to +355, distorting that book's net move. Best Garbrandt: SXBet +355; best Yanez: SXBet -373.
Farid Basharat vs. Ethyn Ewing (1146824): Quiet, 0.4-pt net move toward Ewing — the flattest line on the card. Only 11 books quoting (lowest coverage), 27% agreement, 66 total moves. Bet105 (sharp) shows a massive outlier (+110 to -550 on Basharat) that appears to be a data or line error — the consensus is unmoved. Polymarket at 50.5% Basharat (-104/+100) vs consensus 46.3% Basharat (+104/-127) is a notable divergence, but with only 11 books and 66 moves, there is insufficient coverage for reliable signal.
Consensus moneyline and de-vig win percentages are computed as cross-book medians across all sportsbooks in the tracking set; prediction markets (Polymarket) are excluded from the consensus calculation but reported separately for comparison. Line movement direction is inferred from price changes only — handle and ticket-count data are not available. When a fighter's de-vig percentage rises, that is the side money came in on (price shortened). Sharp vs. public book split is based on pre-assigned book tier tags in the source data; the sharp_led flag indicates whether sharp-tagged books moved more than public-tagged books in the same direction. Prop market implied percentages are raw (not de-vigged) and should be interpreted as directional signals only, not precise probability estimates. Book-specific outliers (e.g., Bet105 on Durden, SXBet on Garbrandt) that appear to reflect line corrections rather than market signals are flagged in the text but not excluded from the computed consensus. All numbers quoted are from the provided pre-computed data and have not been independently recalculated.