UFC 329: McGregor vs Holloway 2 – Volume vs Vintage
Las Vegas heats up July 11 as Conor McGregor hunts redemption against Max Holloway in their welterweight sequel at UFC 329. The Notorious enters as a live +280 underdog, his chin tested lately, while Blessed brings machine-gun volume after a wild lightweight detour. T-Mobile Arena braces for stand-up savagery—will McGregor's precision pierce Holloway's endless barrage, or does Max drown him in punches?
McGregor vs Holloway: Striking Symphony
Both sling significant strikes at blistering clips—McGregor at 7.3 per minute over 14 UFC bouts, Holloway edging him at 7.8 across 32 fights. McGregor's 50% accuracy trumps Holloway's 48%, and he stuffs takedowns better, landing just 0.1 per minute while Blessed barely bothers at 0.0.
McGregor's last five mix knockouts with heartbreak, including two Poirier TKOs, but his opponents land at 54% against him. Holloway's foes connect at 59%, yet he owns the volume crown with 3681 significant strikes landed. Odds favor Max at -233 for a reason—this could be a 25-minute punchfest.
Saint Denis vs Pimblett: Ground vs Gunslinger
Benoit Saint Denis grapples like a vice, racking 48% control time and 0.3 takedowns per minute over 12 fights, with 10 submission tries. Paddy Pimblett counters with 7.5 significant strikes per minute at 53% accuracy, but his 20% control screams vulnerability on the mat.
BSD's on a four-fight tear of TKOs and subs, opponents hitting just 42% strikes against him. Pimblett's last five feature a Gaethje decision loss but flashy wins, his defense mirroring BSD's opp accuracy at 43%. At -163, the Frenchman eyes Paddy's neck in this lightweight chess match.
Sandhagen vs Bautista: Bantamweight Brainiacs
Cory Sandhagen dances at 5.7 significant strikes per minute over 16 fights, 45% accurate, blending 0.1 takedowns per minute with 20% control. Mario Bautista pushes 6.4 per minute at 49% clip, similar wrestling output at 0.2 takedowns, 23% control, and more sub threats.
Sandhagen's form swings with decisions against elites; Bautista rides recent wins but faltered versus Nurmagomedov. Opponents pepper Sandhagen at 57% accuracy, Bautista at 55%—neither is a fortress. -148 favorite Sandhagen meets +130 Bautista in a technical tango.
Steveson vs Ellison: Wrestling Wrecker Debuts
Gable Steveson storms UFC heavyweight with zero octagon stats but three straight regional TKOs, his Olympic roots screaming ground dominance. Elisha Ellison's lone UFC fight yielded 2.1 strikes per minute at 33% accuracy, zero takedowns, and 11% control—small sample, big questions.
Ellison mixes knockouts with losses outside, opponents landing 41% on him. Steveson, a -2000 obliteration, could smother early. This mismatch spotlights raw power versus unproven grit.
Get the full per-round breakdowns
Every bout on UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2 comes with round-by-round stats, model win probabilities, betting odds and line movement. The preview is the surface — the numbers underneath are where the edge lives.